April crude oil started the week on a weak note today, trading down to test support at 36.87 (Monday's low was 36.68) before recovering and settling at 37.18. Price ranged after settlement, and ended the day at 37.37. Iran’s Oil Minister said Iran is committed to raising its output to 4 million barrels per day before they will discuss any output freeze. Russia said it supports Iran in this desire and the market sold off on the headlines.
The so called OPEC – NOPEC production freeze meeting won’t be held in March, it may now occur in April, if it happens at all. OPEC’s regularly scheduled meeting is in June. US shale producers have been a lot more resilient than Saudi Arabia thought and have been able to keep production going despite lower prices and fewer rigs. The US inventory levels continue to grow and storage space is scarce as it is at 88% capacity. In my opinion, this could put more pressure on price in the near future. Another push through 36.87 could lead to a test of support down at 34.14.
CLH16
High - 38.77
Low - 36.68
Last - 37.37
Daily Pivots for 3/15/16:
R2 39.70
R1 38.53
PIVOT 37.61
S1 36.44
S2 35.52