I came into this week with a dollar bullish view, attempted to manage the issues that developed but suffered from the weakness in the dollar right through to yesterday. Of all, it was GBP/USD that surprised the most.
The additional pushes higher yesterday were just not expected and this reflected the issues back on the 24th June – the day Brexit was announced. Such were the difficulty in assessing lower degree waves within the rapid downside onslaught that it caused a ragged move all the way down to 1.2791.
It has been frustrating but there are signs of a more progressive phase now. A triple three has been completed and that suggest that we shall now see the beginnings of the next phase. I had been finding EUR/USD quite difficult also but after the blip above 1.1125 signalled an alternative outcome. This appears to have been completed.
Overall, this should now begin to see a build up of foundation waves – but that’s going to take into next week. The next issue is the summer doldrums, a reduction in liquidity that tends to normally generate corrective patterns. I suspect this year it maybe more directional.
USD/JPY even caught me out – a factor of the alternative ways alternation can develop. On this occasion the more difficult one developed – a modest Wave -iv- instead of a deep one – but then a deep Wave -b- in this position. At least it reached the target area I had been suggesting…
Today should be steady and probably the market will take it easy after the past 4 days…