Tactical ETF Review

If investors are worried about the threat from the fiscal cliff, it's not obvious in the recent price trends for the major asset classes. Our ETF proxies for the primary slices of the world's capital and commodity markets remain in the black for the year through November 23. For the month so far, only foreign developed-market bonds and REITs are suffering from the red ink disease, albeit in moderate doses, while the U.S. stock market overall is near the tipping point.

It's a strange, almost surreal environment. Depending on the analyst, the forecast if the fiscal cliff's tax hikes and spending cuts are allowed to kick in come January ranges from a minor blip to deep economic recession. There are also those who dismiss the danger entirely, arguing that it's a media-hyped event for the political class, with little or no real consequence for the economy or markets. Given the generally positive returns across the major asset classes, one might wonder if the crowd leans toward the latter view. December's market action, no doubt, will sort it all out. Meanwhile, here's how the horse race stacks up so far:

U.S. STOCKS • Vanguard Total Market (VTI) • Benchmark: MSCI U.S. Broad Market Index

FOREIGN DEVELOPED MARKET STOCKS • Vanguard Europe Pacific (VEA) • Benchmark: MSCI EAFE

EMERGING MARKET STOCKS • Vanguard Emerging Markets (VWO) • Benchmark: MSCI Emerging Market

U.S. BONDS • Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) • Benchmark: Barclays U.S. Aggregate

INFLATION-INDEXED US TREASURIES • iShares Barclays TIPS Bond (TIP) • Benchmark: Barclays US TIPS

HIGH YIELD BONDS • SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond (JNK) • Benchmark: Barclays High Yield Very Liquid

COMMODITIES • iPath Dow Jones-UBS Commodity (DJP) • Benchmark: DJ-UBS Commodity

REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS • Vanguard REIT (VNQ) • Benchmark: MSCI US REIT

FOREIGN DEVELOPED MARKET GOVERNMENT BONDS • SPDR Barclays Int’l Treasury (BWX) •
Benchmark: Barclays Global Treasury ex-US Capped

EMERGING MARKET GOVERNMENT BONDS • Van Eck Market Vectors Emg Mkt Local Currency Bond (EMLC) • Benchmark: J.P. Morgan GBI-EMG Core

FOREIGN GOVERNMENT INFLATION-LINKED BONDS • SPDR DB International Inflation-Protected Bond (WIP) • Benchmark: DB Global Government ex-US Inflation-Linked Bond Capped

FOREIGN CORPORATE BONDS • PowerShares International Corporate Bond (PICB) • Benchmark: S&P International Corporate Bond