Franc is reducing during the past two weeks. After the data on consumer price inflation in Germany released last Friday, the franc recovered slightly.
The differential rates between the EBTS, the FRS and the Bank of England have become probable. Some uncertainty in the end timing of the bondsredemption period is traced:
- The FRS’s policy changes are not expected;
- The FRS’s actions are determined not by date, but by the economic indicators;
- Unemployment level is projected to be below 6% till the end of the year.
According to the representative of the Federal Reserve, the growth of the world economy is expected; the level of the U.S.A. economy will depend on the rate hike. The QE will be over estimated this fall.
The U.S.consumer incomes and spending has increased by 0.3%in February. According to analysts, the inflation component of the consumption index hasincreased in annual terms by 0.9 %. The analysts downgraded theprevious forecast of the GDP in theU.S.A. in the first quarter from 2.0% to 1.5% JPM. The statistics remains weak, but the outlook for the second quarter is at the level +2.0 %.
USD/CHFrate fell to 0.8850. Immediate support is at Chf0.8830/20, then - at 0.8785. Strong resistance –is at 0.8900, higher it is - at 0.8920/30.
The pound has risen for the last week, but after the publication of the GDP data on Friday it declined: GDP in Q4 grew by 0.7 % q / q, while in annual terms - by 2.7 % y / y.
In February, the retail sales, excluding fuel, increased by 1.8 % m/m and by 4.2 % y/y against the forecasts of 0.3 % m/m and 2.8 % y/y respectively. These official figures were published previously. According to the recent statistics, the growth of retail sales is by 1.7% m/m and 3.7 % y/y against the forecast - 0.5 % m/m and 2.5 % y/y
Pound Sterling rose again on Wednesday. According to the representative of the Bank of England, the rates will not always remain at 0.5%:
- Normalization of interest rates is due to the normalization of the economy;
- There will be a gradual increase in rates.
According to the British statistics the consumer price inflation rise is observed at 1.7 % in annual rates that is lower of 1.9 % y / y previously. The Bank of England has sufficient arguments to preserve monetary policy for a long time.
As for the technical point of view,the GBP/USD have tested the highs on 1.6640 dollar. It is demonstrated the resistance at 1.6700, then –at 1.6785. The immediate support is delayed on the levels of the day lows at 1.6600, then - at 1.6550 .
