US stocks staged the largest rise since March overnight on relief rally over US election. Hillary Clinton was cleared from FBI investigation over her emails, which should retain her lead over Donald Trump on winning the election. DJIA gained 371.32 pts, or 2.08%, to close at 18259.60. S&P 500 rose 46.34 pts, or 2.22%, to close at 2131.52. Treasury yields also gained with 10 year yield closed up 0.045 at 1.828. Dollar index also staged a strong rise and is now trading at 97.78, comparing to last week's low at 96.89. Gold dropped to as low as 1278.6 before recovering back to 1284 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, crude also recovered but struggles to take out 45 handle.
It's general consensus that a Trump win would result in much more uncertainties in the markets which would trigger sell off in risk assets and flight to safety. On the other hand, a Clinton win would ensure more continuity in both fiscal on monetary policies. And thus, Fed is highly like to finally hike interest rate again in December after a Clinton win. There are quite a number of Fed officials scheduled to speak later in the week including Fischer, Bullard, Evans, Kashkari and Williams. And markets will look into their views on Fed rates post election.
As for today, China trade surplus widened to USD 49.1b in October, slightly smaller than expectation of USD 51.9b. in CNY terms, trade surplus widened to CNY 325b versus expectation of CNY 366b. Australia NAB business confidence dropped to 4 in October. UK BRC retail sales monitor rose 1.7% yoy in October. Swiss unemployment, German industrial production and trade balance will be released in European session. UK will also release industrial production and manufacturing production. Canada will release housing starts and building permits.