Getting back after a break always takes time, but I was mostly comfortable with yesterday’s analysis. There are still some blind spots where I have doubts, but for the most part I am quite content with the outcome.
Covering the Europeans first, I was very happy with the outcomes and frankly the analysis I provided yesterday still very much applies to today. Perhaps there could be a few small snags but overall the outlook appears stable.
If there is any concern it could be in USD/CHF, but I’d still suggest that the directional bias outlined remains the same – it’s just a matter of whether we see a shortfall today or the outcome I had expected. I still tend to go with yesterday’s outlook, but do take care.
This keeps EUR/USD and GBP/USD on track. I don’t expect a strong follow-through today though there should be some, but coming to the ending phase there is risk of complications should there be complex corrections standing in the way.
AUD/USD… well, I hadn’t expected much yesterday and it exceeded in proving me right, apart from the deeper pullback than expected. Otherwise there’s no great change here and it tends to follow the same template as the Europeans.
USD/JPY… this was the one that failed, and from the reversal from yesterday’s high there’s every risk of further complications. I’d suggest skipping this pair for today until there is a stronger structure that emerges.
The fact that EUR/JPY failed to follow-through on the upside was disappointing, but there is still a chance that yesterday’s analysis will still develop. It tends to suggest a rather static USD/JPY. It will be well to understand the implications of certain levels that would trigger follow-through.
I suspect a steady day, perhaps with some complications again today…