SPY Thoughts: Far Too Large A Loss

First off I want to apologize for my insensitive comments here the other evening about Syria not mattering to our markets.

What I meant was that we don’t rely on them for any real inputs to public companies so I didn’t think it should move our market, especially on the very ambiguous comments by Senator Kerry.

Again, my apologies if I offended anyone, my intent was far from that and I hope none of us ever come close to experiencing anything close to the tragic, unspeakable events that have taken place and are taking place in Syria.

Not the best of days with markets gaping quite a bit lower for the open leaving me with a decent loss in my SPY position from late Monday. Luckily I had a few positions that offset that loss so I gave the SPY ETF to the 100 day but that stopped me out.

What can you do?

I have no desire to take large risks with breakouts failing and markets shaky.

I’ve only got Tesla (TSLA) and some Apple (AAPL) shorts left now along with some gold and silver but I did reduce those two positions by about half since miners took a big hit and they often lead the metals.

I really don’t like trading the metals, and the miners even less so until they can attract much stronger hands and show me some strength in terms of growth I’ll avoid.

I see next Monday is a holiday to celebrate Labor day so please be aware of that.

Let’s check out the charts now but it looks like we are quickly back to the stance of small positions, if any at all until we see another sign of a low.

I took far too large a loss here yesterday.

No gap fill as I was looking for and now we’re at the 50% Fibonacci level here and looking for a test of the 61% level just under $162 by the looks of it.

I’d like to see some sign of a low there but I do not see one yet here.

We should be about halfway through this correction which means that we could see a low form soon but it can take a couple or few weeks to set up a buy point.

Time will tell but until then I think I'll be keeping positions small or none-existent.

That said, we may see a few short chances here in our chart review and those can be very lucrative.

Let’s also take a look at an Elliot Wave chart analysis I posted here and on my free blog back on August 20th.

As I said when I posted this weekly chart, I am not an Elliot Wave analyst and rarely pull it out.

I’m sure many others have shown a chart similar to this already.

That said if we do break this uptrend line at the $163 area then a move to $155 and $150 would have a much higher likelihood of occurring.

Just keep this chart in mind as we could be at the long end of this strong up-move and be on the cusp of a major correction or even a bear market.

We will be taking advantage of whatever comes next once we get a little more direction.