The following 3-year Daily ratio charts compare the price action, strength/weakness, and current price level of the SPX with a number of major world indices, commodities, and 30-year bonds.
You can see, at a glance, that the SPX has been weaker than most of the other major world indices, of late (other than China, Japan, and, to some extent, Australia), and price sits at or near to major support. On the other hand, the SPX has been stronger recently than the NDX and the RUT, as well as Gold, Silver, Copper and Oil. The SPX vs the World Index is slightly weaker, and price sits at major support. The SPX has been stronger than U.S. 30-Year bonds, but is sitting in between major support and resistance in a neutral zone.
The big question is, "Will we see buyers step back into the SPX in the near term?" If so, we'd see price enter into the "froth area" that I wrote about in an earlier post on April 5th. Additionally, we would see price rise above historically high levels on the SPX:VIX ratio chart that I wrote about in my last post on May 8th.
If buyers are willing to take on more risk while the Fed holds interest rates low, we may see them step back into the SPX, NDX, RUT, China, Japan, and Australia, and, possibly, step out of some European and BRIC country holdings, commodities, and 30-year bonds. If not, we may see prices rise in commodities and 30-year bonds, as I wrote about here on May 2nd. Otherwise, we may continue to see an increasingly volatile game of leapfrog rotation and large swings play out amongst these markets over the next weeks/months...buckle up...it could be a wild ride!
