Speculators Trim Dollar Bets Following 3 Weeks Of Gains

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large trader and speculators slightly pulled back on their bullish bets of the US dollar after rises for the previous three weeks. Mexican peso positions, meanwhile, declined sharply for a second straight week to turn bearish for the first time in approximately five months.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $27.00 billion as of Tuesday August 12th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$2.41 billion from the $29.41 billion total long position that was registered on August 5th, according to the calculation by Reuters that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

Despite the decrease in the dollar value of the net speculator positions, overall dollar contracts rose last week to +144,742 contracts as of Tuesday August 5th. This was a change by +15,552 contracts from the total of +129,190 contracts as of Tuesday August 5th. The total US dollar contracts calculation takes into account more currencies than the Reuters dollar amount total and is derived by adding the sum of each individual currencies net position versus the dollar. Currency contracts used in the calculation are the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes:

Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators raised their bets last week in favor of the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen and the Swiss franc while decreasing weekly bets for the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

Notable changes on the week for the Major Currencies:

• Euro positions rebounded slightly last week after euro positions had fallen to the most bearish level since August of 2012

• British pound sterling positions gained after falling for five straight weeks and to the lowest level since early February

• Japanese yen bets rebounded last week (+14,302) after bearish positions had advanced to over -95,000 contracts the previous week

• Swiss franc bets edged higher following three weeks of decline and to the most bearish level since June 11th 2013

• Canadian dollar positions fell slightly for a second week in a row but remained on the bullish side for a seventh consecutive week

• Australian dollar net positions declined slightly for a second week as traders cut back on their Aussie long positions to under 30,000 contracts for the first time since June 17th

• New Zealand dollar net positions edged slightly lower last week as long positions (-1,036) fell and short positions (+35) were virtually unchanged last week

• Mexican peso positions dropped sharply last week for a second straight week by over -30,000 contracts. Overall positions are now in a bearish position (-41 contracts) for the first since March 25th

This latest COT data is through Tuesday August 12th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

Discalimer: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.