The latest IMM data cover the week from 7 to 14 July 2015.
The latest IMM positioning report shows that speculators added to their bearish EUR/USD post the Greek deal announcement. While the change in EUR-positioning is not significant from a historical perspective, the shift has sent non-commercial positioning in the single currency below the 15th percentile for the first time in five weeks (page 3). Fundamentally, we expect more downside in EUR/USD from here primarily driven by three factors: 1) non-EUR denominated investors high hedge ratios will drive outright EUR-selling, 2) relative monetary policy will regain centre stage with focus shifting to a re-pricing of the first Fed-hike, 3) Greece worries will continue to be a EUR negative (see FX Strategy - Three reasons why EUR/USD should fall , 14 July) . We target EUR/USD at 1.04 in 3M.
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