The latest IMM data covers the week from 30 June to 7 July 2015.
IMM positioning data released Friday showed how speculative positioning in the EUR has remained remarkably stable amid the prolonged negotiations between Greece and its creditors. While speculators marginally reduced their bearish exposure to the single currency last week, non-commercial positioning has been close to unchanged in the last three reports (see page 3). This morning a Greece deal was agreed but we expect the EUR bounce to be short-lived. Indeed the IMM data supports our call that as long as there was no clarification of the Greece issue the EUR potential was limited. However, on the prospect of a new deal being approved in the Greek parliament on Wednesday we expect EUR/USD to fall on either 1) EUR weakness in the event of renewed Grexit fears or 2) USD strength on the back of renewed focus on the first Fed hike edging closer (see FX Strategy - IF Grexit THEN sell EUR/USD, ELSE sell EUR/USD , 8 July). In either outcome, however, support will be concentrated on one leg, which suggests that parity for the cross is not within reach. We see the cross at 1.04 in 3M.
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