Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions. Examples of such can be found in silver.
LTCO and LTREVO (chart 1) define a profitable aligned down impulse since May. Compression, a sharp decline in +BW, often precedes trends transitions from down to up. SLV down impulses have averaged 34 weeks since 2006 (chart 2).
The crude oil trade and trends are monitored weekly in Trading Notes.
Price and Leverage Matrix
LTCO and LTLO define focused bear opportunity since May. Bearish alignment is consistent with price and volume.
Crude's DI of Q3 favor the onset of a longer term, bearish oscillation/cycle (chart 3).
