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Short-Term Treasury Bond Yields May Have Peaked

Published 05/29/2018, 12:37 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
US10YT=X
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10-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Yield

This chart looks at the yield on the 10-year note over the past 9 years. A double bottom looks to have taken place as it hit identical lows in 2012 and 2016.

Yields have rallied since the lows in 2016 and are now testing the same level at which they peaked in 2013 at (1).

Is a double top taking place at (2) – the same level we saw in 2013 – as momentum is also hitting lofty levels at (2)? The rally in yields and the decline in bond prices has driven sentiment to levels rarely seen in the past decade (very few bulls).

It's possible that a short-term peak in yields is taking place at (2), which is just where they peaked in 2013.

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