Get 40% Off
💰 Buffett reveals a $6.7B stake in Chubb. Copy the full portfolio for FREE with InvestingPro’s Stock Ideas toolCopy Portfolio

Short-Term Currency Outlook: January 28, 2013

Published 01/28/2013, 12:29 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
EUR/USD
-
GBP/USD
-
USD/JPY
-
ENI
-
Main analysis

EUR/USD
EURUSD
EUR/USD:

1.3462

Short-Term Trend: Uptrend

Outlook: After spending a couple of weeks in a small sideways consolidation below 1.3400, EUR/USD broke out last week. Thus, our bullish view has been confirmed. The uptrend remains very strong and gains toward 1.3720 and possibly toward 1.4045 are expected in February. On the downside, only a move below the 1.3260 level will negate this bullish outlook and will signal a deeper pullback toward 1.3000. With this in mind, we can raise the stop to just below 1.3260.

Strategy: Holding long from 1.3320 is favored against 1.3250. Target=1.3720.

GBP/USD
<span class=GBP/USD" title="GBP/USD" width="1594" height="745">
GBP/USD: 1.5795

Short-Term Trend: Downtrend

Outlook: The decline is not as fast as we wanted, but still the prices have broken below the 1.5820 chart support and we can now confirm the completion of wave E (and therefore wave (E) as well) on the chart above. The next potential support can be expected at 1.5680 and then comes the very important 1.5260 level (honestly I don't see much support between 1.5260 and 1.5680). On the upside, a move abv 1.5945/1.6000 is unlikely at this stage but only above 1.6100 will negate our bearish case....

Strategy: Holding short from 1.6170 is favored. Stop=1.6110.

USD/JPY
<span class=USD/JPY" title="USD/JPY" width="1594" height="745">
USD/JPY: 90.87

Short-Term Trend: uptrend

Outlook: There was a small dip earlier in the week, but then USD resumed its strong uptrend vs JPY again and made new highs for this bull market. The daily chart remains in very strong uptrend but the market is also quite overbought. But overbought does not mean sell, so it is stupid if one tries to short this market now (take a look at the chart and you will see that's a suicide). So we can expect higher prices twd 92.00 and 93.12 in the coming week or so.

On the downside, a move below 88.00 will signal that a correction of recent strong gains has finally started. From a trading perspective, we had been long for quite a long time but then were stopped out at 87.80 a couple of weeks ago. Now, the trend is higher but it doesn't seem reasonable to re-enter this market at the current levels.

Strategy: Stand aside.

3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads .

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.