The market seems to have been reduced to scatterbrains. Ok, well, I can see structures developing but it’s almost as if the market really doesn’t have a clue what’s happening. Certainly the dollar bearish move from around the 10th April has, in the latter stages, become quite muddled, bewildered and bothered. I’m modestly satisfied with EUR/USD and GBP/USD although USD/CHF is almost taking a strange route that looks to go nowhere. Even the Aussie has gone a bit hyper.
Perhaps I’m overstating but I have found the range of development quite strange, but still keeping to the ratio structures. EUR/USD has just hit the 1.0932 target I set in my analysis being a lower degree Wave iii so I continue to expect a move back above 1.0951.
However, following the expected decline in GBP/USD just two legs so far. There could be an approach to above the 1.2965 high, but it’s touch and go. However, there is a slight duality in the latter stages of the rally that could just see an overlap above 1.2965 but it’s a close call. Keep a stop a above at a decent level, around 1.2995.
USD/JPY has been a pair that has surprised me, reaching 112.30. There is a risk of a minor new high but overall I’m not in the bullish court at this point. If it extends losses it should allow losses in EUR/JPY but we’ll have to watch the development in each of EUR/USD and USD/JPY.
The Aussie should have found its high at 0.7556 and it still seems hell bent on broad swings.
So there’s a mix within this bunch that needs some care and attention.