Talking Points
- EUR/USDfails again at key Gann level
- US Dollarrebounds from key support zone
- Important cycle turn window coming up for the S&P 500
Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD failed again last week at Gann resistance in the 1.1040 area
- Our near-term trend bias is positive on the euro while above 1.0760
- A move through 1.1040 is needed to set off a more serious advance
- A minor turn window is eyed around the latter part of the week
- Only weakness below 1.0760 would turn us negative again on the euro.
EUR/USD Strategy: Link the long side while over 1.0760.
Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
EUR/USD | *1.0760 | 1.0800 | 1.0845 | 1.0950 | *1.1040 |
Price & Time Analysis: FXCM US DOLLAR INDEX
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- US DOLLARhas traded steadily higher after finding support at a key trendline in the 11,900 area
- Our near-term trend bias is lower in the index while below 12,015
- Weakness below 11,830 needed to set off a more serious decline
- A very minor turn window is eyed Wednesday
- A close over 12,015 would turn us positive again on the dollar
US DOLLAR Strategy: Like the short side while below 12,015 (closing basis).
Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
US DOLLAR | *11,830 | 11,900 | 12,015 | *12,015 | 12,050 |
Focus Chart of the Day: S&P 500
April is shaping up to be an interesting period for the S&P 500. A host of important long-term cyclical relationships should influence throughout April, but the first few days and last few days of the month look to be especially important. The first real test for the market will come around the end of this week as a perfect 3,141 “pi cycle” trading day count from the October 2002 low in the index should influence the market. Interestingly this relationship will coincide with the release of US March payrolls data. What this will mean for the index is the tricky part as it is stuck in a pretty clear range at the moment. Our general modus operandi around these key cyclical periods or windows is to look to fade the prevailing trend. There isn’t really one at the moment to fade, though a break of 2040 or a push back over 2119 would start to get us looking for a potential reversal.
--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com