This morning's Empire Manufacturing General Business Conditions Index surprised to the upside at a near 5-year high. In contrast, the August Industrial Production Index, came in below expectations, and the previous month was revised downward. The S&P 500 opened fractionally higher and sold off to its -0.36% intraday low 30 minutes later. It oscillated through the day, rising to its mid-afternoon high, up 0.8%, and then traded lower to its -0.07% close. The market will probably remain subdued in advance of Wednesday's FOMC summary of economic projections and Chair Yellen's press conference.
As for today's Industrial Production report, I'll have more to say about it tomorrow after we get the August Producer Price Index for some inflation context.
The VIX volatility index rose about six percent, closing at 14.12. Price volatility, however, was subdued. The 0.44% intraday range is at the 16th percentile of the 177 market days in 2014, the average range being 0.83%.
The yield on the U.S. 10-Year Note closed at 2.60%, down 2 bps from Friday's close. It is now 26 bps above its 2014 low.
Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions.
Today's subdued price action came on fairly average volume.
For a longer-term perspective, here is a pair of charts based on daily closes starting with the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.
