Riding The Oil Trend: Bullish In The Long Term

Some time ago we published an analysis on oil and the bullish potential it had if certain conditions were met. The important neckline of the inverse Head and Shoulders pattern was broken upwards and so was the huge sideways triangle that was being formed for the last 2 years. TRADING2DAY members were notified of the bullish implications of those break outs and saw me enter long positions heavily near the $97 level and again at the 101-102 level.

Below is the break out of the big sideways triangle.

Next chart shows the breaking of the neckline and the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. Prices have reached the first target of the IHS breakout which is the 61.8% of the length of the head. Next target is the 112$ price level as its also the most common target after such breakouts.

The bullish trend has ended or is near its completion. As shown in the following charts, we believe that wave 3 has ended and OIL is entering a corrective phase. This phase we believe is wave 4 of the entire move that started near 91. We believe that the move that started from 92.67$ has ended and it was wave 3 as shown in the following charts. Breaking out of the short term upward channel will confirm this view.

Wave 4 is expected to move sideways and lower towards the 38% and 50% Fibonacci retracements of this upward move, shown with yellow in the chart that follows. The pull back could reach 101-102 price area. Breaking below the red horizontal support line, will cancel this bullish wave count as an overlapping pattern can not be impulsive, thus changing the our view to bearish.

Concluding, we remain longer term bullish in oil but with short term neutral view.

Disclosure: None of the information or opinions expressed in this blog constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other instrument. Nothing in this article constitutes investment advice and any recommendations that may be contained herein have not been based upon a consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Any purchase or sale activity in any securities or other instrument should be based upon your own analysis and conclusions.