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Review Of U.S. Treasury Bonds: Still In Bear Phase Since February

Published 03/03/2015, 08:32 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

The professional investors must profit by anticipating future trends and events rather than chasing old news. This is done by following the invisible hand or message of the market. That message, the simultaneous study of the the cycle of accumulation and distribution (trend), the distribution, movement, and participation of leverage (leverage), time/cycles, and human behavior void of opinions is defined below:


Trend (Bearish)


A rising trend has supported a largely unbroken up impulse since February 2014 (chart 1). A bearish crossover (XO) generates the third correction February's change of trend. The bears control the trend until down impulse is reversed.
TLT And Intermediate and Long Term Trend Oscillators

Leverage (Bear Phase/Bullish)

The flow of leverage (red arrow) has defined a bear phase since February 2015 (chart 2). This phase supports the expectation of falling prices.
US Treasury Bond 20 YR + TLT Diffusion Index

Treasury bonds' leverage oscillators, negative since mid February, advise caution for the bears ready to chase (chart 3). A bearish crossover to a positive impulse supports price's downtrend (see trend).
US Treasury Bond And Leverage Oscillators

Time/Cycle (Bearish)

The 5-year seasonal cycle defines weakness until second week of April (chart 4).
5 Year Seasonal Chart for US Treasury Bond


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