Management’s unchanged guidance and ongoing focus on debt reduction were the financial headlines for Renewi PLC (LON:RWI) at the halfway point of FY20. Continued progress in the company’s largest division plus ATM appearing to be closer to resolving soil remediation issues are the two key pre-close messages, in our view. Other divisions are also performing in line with management expectations. Valuation multiples remain low in conventional terms with earnings and dividend growth expected to resume in FY21 on our estimates.
Adapting and responding to market challenges
The end H120 update reiterated the AGM message regarding ongoing progress in the Commercial division sustained by firmer pricing and synergy benefits. There are likely to be general market effects from trading difficulties at AEB in the Netherlands (most obviously, reduced incinerator capacity and reduced refuse derived fuel or RDF intake) as the supply chain adjusts. Renewi’s contractual positions and other mitigating actions taken lead management to believe that there will be little impact on the company during FY20.
Encouragingly, ATM appears to be clearing soil testing hurdles to satisfy the regulator in Holland and a re-opening of the market is expected although no firm date is provided. Additionally, ATM has developed potential markets for separated/graded soil components sufficiently to invest in processing capacity in this area; once certified, these products will aid diversification in end market application and revenue generation for the company.
Apart from a new service agreement at Derby, no further detailed comments were made on UK Municipal or Monostreams, which are performing in line with board expectations. This perhaps indicates greater stability in these two divisions following portfolio adjustments and some management changes, respectively.
Other corporate activities, ie green financing initiatives and business disposals, are as previously reported save for confirmation that the Canadian Municipal disposal completed and the initial C$82m/c €55m proceeds were received prior to the period end.
Valuation: Single-digit multiples, c 5% dividend yield
Renewi’s share price is broadly flat year-to-date and yet to regain the year high of 37p seen just prior to the FY19 results announcement in May. On our unchanged estimates, the company’s P/E and EV/EBITDA (adjusted for pensions cash) compress to 5.2x and 3.8x respectively by FY22 with a prospective FY20 dividend yield of 4.6%.
Business description
Renewi is a waste-to-product company with operations primarily in the Netherlands, Belgium and the UK, and was formed from the merger between Shanks Group and Van Gansewinkel Group in 2017. Its activities span the collection, processing and resale of industrial, hazardous and municipal waste.