In Sweden on Wednesday the NIER will publish its new forecasts (09.15 CEST) and business and consumer confidence (09.00 CEST). We will of course scour the tables for indications of rising wages and inflation pressure, but it will be the NIER's forecast for near-term inflation that we will focus on. Remember that in terms of inflation forecasts it is actually the Riksbank that is the odd man out, projecting a much higher near-term path than any other forecaster (including ourselves and the NIER). The NIER's new inflation path could thus provide us with some clues on whether the Riksbank is seeing something others (we) aren't.
The main event in the Norwegian market will be the Q3 oil investment survey, and like last year we expect only moderate changes to the estimates for 2016. It is probably too early to see any impact on investment plans from the latest drop in oil prices, so the survey's informational value will be less than normal. Lower-than-expected estimates would nevertheless seriously fuel speculation about a bigger drop in investment next year and so put pressure on Norges Bank ahead of its September meeting.
Note that we now expect the drop in oil prices to prompt a rate cut from Norges Bank as early as the September meeting . Although the weaker krone and higher inflation in isolation should push up the interest rate path, thus reducing the probability of a rate cut, we expect the central bank to behave much as it did in December last year, when a cut was brought forward as insurance against a serious downturn in the Norwegian economy.
In the Danish market focus will be on the non-callable bullet refinancing auctions that continue for a second week. The week also sees the Nationalbank's data for foreign portfolio investments and securities statistics for July, and finally, the government will publish its latest Economic Survey with updated projections for the economy. The updated financing need for Denmark was out on Sunday evening.
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