The Institut de la statistique du Québec (ISQ) reports that Quebec’s trade deficit narrowed for a second consecutive month in October (top chart), this time by $297 million, to $1.49 billion. The value of exports rose $196 million (+3.7%; Canada +1.0%).
The main contributor was farm products, followed by petroleum and coal derivatives and aluminum, more than offsetting declines in aerospace products and in metal ores, concentrates and scrap. The value of imports fell $100 million (−1.4%; Canada −1.2%). The ISQ was again unable to provide constant-dollar data. It expects to do so January 30.
OPINION: Since much of the rise of Quebec exports in October was due to an unusual jump in agricultural exports, it’s hard to say that the uptrend of the last two months will continue. If it were to do so, the value of Quebec international exports in Q4 would be up at least 11% from the last quarter of 2009 (middle chart).
In Q3, by contrast, exports were almost flat from Q4 2009. Over the first 10 months of 2012, meanwhile, exports are up only 0.9% over the same period a year earlier. Since 2011 ended with a short-lived spike, it is not sure that 2012 as a whole will show an increase over last year. Though one month of data shows international trade on track to contribute to quarterly GDP growth for the first time this year (bottom chart), this morning’s report gives us no reason to revise our forecast of 0.8% economic growth for Quebec in 2012.
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Quebec: Trade Deficit Narrows In October
Published 12/20/2012, 02:27 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
Quebec: Trade Deficit Narrows In October
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