The Institut de la statistique du Québec (ISQ) reports that Quebec’s trade deficit narrowed $762 million in September, to $1.76 billion, from the record gap of August. The value of exports rose $439 million (+9.2%; Canada +1.9%), led by aircraft and aircraft engines (+$394 million) and iron ore and concentrates (+$104 million). The value of imports fell $323 million (−4.4%; Canada 0.0%). Exceptionally, the ISQ was unable to publish constant-dollar data in today’s report.
OPINION: Despite the September rebound (top chart), the value of Quebec’s international merchandise exports in Q3 was well below that of Q2 (middle chart). This poor showing extends the post-recession sluggishness of Quebec exports. In Q3 they were only 1.9% above the level of Q4 2009, 11 quarters earlier, and accordingly far from the pre-recession peak. Over the same period, exports of the rest of Canada jumped 23.7% and, despite a retreat in 2012 to date, are now close to the 2007 average.
Quebec’s lag in exports is the main reason for the lag of its economy relative to the rest of Canada since the recession. September rebound notwithstanding, the nominal trade deficit widened in Q3, suggesting that international trade subtracted from economic growth for a third straight quarter.