The Institut de la statistique du Québec reports a record $2.44-billion trade deficit for Quebec in August, up $639 million from July (top chart). The value of exports fell $207 million (−4.1%) to $4.79 billion. Decreases were reported in 14 of 23 main product groups accounting for 57% of exports, but 60% of the decline (−$124 million) was in ores, concentrates and metal scrap. The value of imports jumped $433 million (+6.4%) to $7.23 billion. Increases were reported in 12 of 24 main product groups accounting for 61% of imports, but a $412 million rise in crude oil imports accounted for almost all the increase. In constant dollars, the trade deficit widened $290 million to $2.34 billion. Volume exports were down $119 million (−2.5%; −0.3% for Canada) to $4.65 billion and volume imports were up $171 million (+2.5%; −2.3% for Canada) to $6.99 billion. Export prices fell 1.7%. Import prices rose 3.8% because of the increase in the share of crude oil in the import mix.
OPINION: Two months into Q3, Quebec volume exports are the weakest in eight quarters. Over the eight quarters, volume exports for Canada as a whole rose 6.7% versus 2.1% for Quebec (middle chart). The lag in Quebec’s export growth was due to the decline in aerospace exports, its largest export category. Excluding aerospace, Quebec volume exports have grown comparably to those for Canada as a whole, 6.4%. The decline in volume exports over the first two months of Q3 leaves the constant-dollar trade balance on track for a record quarterly deficit and a third consecutive quarter of subtraction from economic growth (bottom chart).