- According to the economic accounts published by the ISQ, economic growth in the province has been trending below 1% annualized since 2011 Q2. The first two quarters of 2012 saw the trend persist.
- Considering the scenario that we had laid out this past June for 2012, Quebec international exports and consumer spending have clearly disappointed. This explains in large part why we are revising our economic growth forecast for Quebec in 2012. Real GDP growth is now pegged at 0.8%, down from 1.4%. This translates into nominal GDP growth of 3.2%, revised down from 3.8%.
- For 2013, as the economic outlook for Quebec’s principal trade partners, including the rest of Canada, has worsened somewhat since June, we are revising our real GDP growth forecast from 1.7% to 1.4%. Nominal GDP, for its part, is now projected to grow 3.5%, compared with 4.0% this past June.
This past June, we forecast economic growth for Quebec of 1.4% in 2012. In light of the 2012Q2 economic accounts published by the Institut de la Statistique du Quebec (ISQ), we need to revise these forecasts lower. Indeed, after annualized quarterly real GDP growth of 0.5% in Q1 and 0.8% in Q2 (vs. 1.8% and 1.9%, respectively, in Canada), growth would have to be on the order of 4.5% in each of the last two quarters of 2012 for our June forecast to come true. This is clearly unrealistic.
International exports are one of the components of aggregated demand that has disappointed so far in 2012. Indeed, after seven months, the average monthly volume of international merchandise exports measured in 2002 prices is level with the average for 2011 (Canada: +4.7%). Barring a sudden and unexpected upturn, international export volumes in 2012 will fall well short of the 5.1% growth we forecast this past June.
So far in 2012, we note above all a decrease relative to 2011 in terms of monthly average exports of aerospace products, aluminum products, and pulp and paper. As it happens, the first two are Quebec’s most important export categories. In 2011, aerospace products accounted for 16.7% of Quebec’s export volumes and aluminum products, 11.2%.
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