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Long-Term US Dollar/Chinese Yuan Trade

Published 11/02/2015, 11:29 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Key Points

1. USD/CNY is has fallen back into its price channel and is now at the top trendline of the channel. Given the ongoing initiatives of the PBOC to internationalize the yuan, I think this may be a good time to short the yuan. Accordingly, I just entered a small position with my stop 1,000 pips above at 6.45 and a target profit of the lows from 2014 near 6.00.

2. We are seeing USD at resistance against EUR, and also approaching resistance against gold. This may fit the theme of USD weakness getting ready to appear.

3. If dollar weakness does appear, the holding pattern on (N:TLT) -- the ETF tracking long-dated US Treasury bonds -- may break south. We may also see oil rise too.

4. High grade copper continues to head south, and may complete an AB=CD pattern that would give it a target of around 2.03. I don't have a trade on here, but it may be a nice reward/risk setup for those who wish to trade copper.

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