The precious metal market has been stuck in a strong down trend since 2012. But the recent chart, volume and technical analysis is starting to show some signs that a bottom may have already taken place.
This report focused on the weekly and monthly charts, which allow us to see the bigger picture of where the precious metals sector stands in terms of its trend.
Let’s take a look at a few charts below for a quick overview.
Gold Spot Price – Weekly Chart
This chart clearly shows the trends, which gold has gone through in the last three years. With simple technical analysis trend lines, clearly price is nearing a significant apex, which will result in a strong breakout in either direction.
Remember, this is the weekly chart, so we could still have another month or three of sideways chatter to work through. But a breakout in either direction will trigger a large move.
Silver Spot Price – Weekly Chart
Silver is also stuck in a similar pattern. Currently the odds still favors lower prices and for the upper resistance trend line to reject price and send it lower. But if we keep out eye on the leading indicators like gold miners, we may be able to catch a breakout or traded the rejection of resistance in the next month or so.
Gold Mining Stock ETF – Monthly Chart
Gold miners have a very sloppy looking chart. Price is extremely volatile and the recent price action in 2013 could go either way VERY quickly. I have a gut feeling GDX in the coming months could have a washout bottom and tag the $20 price level. While I hope I am wrong for many investors sake, if it does happen, it will be a very strong investment level to accumulate a position.
Precious Metals Bigger Picture Outlook:
In short, I remain neutral – bearish for this sector. In the next 1-3 months we are likely to see some strong price action which will be great. We need a breakout or bottoming pattern to form before we get involved at this level.
I know everyone is dying to get involved in precious metals again for another huge rally… but sometimes it’s just best to wait for the big picture chart to catch up with your bias before taking a position of size.