Today, the releases of Purchasing Managers’ surveys conducted in October send mixed signals regarding the evolution of activity at the start of Q4. All in all, the data is slightly better than generally expected, but still points to very low but positive GDP growth by the end of the year.
In the Eurozone, the composite output PMI index was marginally up on October, at 52.2 after 52.0 in September, whereas a fall was widely expected. This level is still short of the average level recorded in Q3, pointing to further deceleration of activity in end 2014. The surveys suggest some resilience from the manufacturing sector, where output growth picked up in October to a three-month high. But the rebound may well be short-lived, with new orders in that sector slightly decreasing for the second month running. In the services sectors, activity went on growing slowly according to the surveys, with the business activity index unchanged at 52.4, a six-month low.
The upward surprise mainly came from Germany, where manufacturing output growth rebounded frankly, with the output index up by more than 2 points, from 51.0 to 53.3. This rebound was however partly balanced by a substantial slowdown in services activity. The rebound in manufacturing activity did not spread from Germany to France. In the latter, PMI indices were slightly down both in manufacturing and services, and remain below the 50-threshold.
Lastly, comparing French and German data with the Eurozone average suggests some resilience in other Eurozone countries, and even some increase in services activity for some countries. According to Markit, the overall pace of output expansion in nations outside the big-two recovered somewhat in October.
BY Frédérique CERISIER
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