At its recent R&D day in New York, Pharma Mar SAU (MC:PHMR) flagged endometrial cancer as a likely fourth indication for lurbinectedin (data to be presented at ASCO). It confirmed that it is on track to achieve the key milestones of an approval decision for Aplidin for multiple myeloma in Europe, and Phase III results for lurbinectedin in ovarian cancer this year, with the most likely timing in Q4. The company emphasised its goal of commercialising lurbinectedin itself in the US market, prompting us to adopt self-commercialisation as our base case valuation scenario, which lifts our valuation by 16% to €1.50bn (vs €1.29bn), or €6.75/share (vs €5.79/share).
Four potential catalysts in Q4
Updated timelines presented at the R&D day suggest that four significant events are likely to occur in the fourth quarter. In addition to a decision on the marketing application for Aplidin in multiple myeloma in Europe, and results from the 443-patient Phase III trial of lurbinectedin in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer, the completion of recruitment in the lurbinectedin small cell lung cancer Phase III trial and initiation of a pivotal study in BRCA2+ breast cancer are also expected Q417.
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