It is natural that the market could easily get use to the supply side as oil continues to fall into 2016. I on the other hand at this point really start to consider the demand side of the equation. Building a fundamental case in the face of such bearishness is the kind of stuff that caused Mike Burry to invest in CDS's and George Soros to sell sterling out of the ERM. The big picture around oil is much like this... Chinese oil demand has been growing steadily despite weakness in the Chinese economy, this is a strong sign that the Chinese are still in the market. Asian countries like Vietnam are showing strong GDP growth, in 2015 this was 7.5%. Oil prices in the West are low enough stimulating strong demand from car users, we could see a similar trend in China if car sales continue to grow.
The supply side of the fence should naturally start to slow, already drilling should be at capacity, so a decline at this point is a possibility. North sea production is also projected to be down this year. Granted I expect oil to keep slipping into possibly $20 a barrel after maybe a brief rally before hand. Long-term United States Oil (N:USO) tells the story. This thing can't go anywhere, give or take $3 difference on the share and that's it. Physical oil demand is bound to outstrip supply, the biggest possible investment play next to holding physical gold.