A minor Friday downside probe after the midweek plunge to a new setback low, down from the trend line from mid-January and chart barriers at .7525/30,
The push below our next key target, .7371, the 2011 cycle low has confirmed a multi-year Double Top pattern and also below the 38.2% retrace of the entire 2009-11 rally at .7335 for a still more bearish theme to leave risk to further key long term supports.
Short-term Outlook - Downside Risks:
- We now see a more negative tone with the bearish threat for lower targets at and the 2011 spike low at .7116.
- Through here quickly sees the psychological/ option target at .7000.
- Surrender then targets the 50% retrace of the entire 2009-11 rally at .6870
Momentum: The 8-day RSI, short-term momentum is falling and has scope to go still lower this week.
What Changes This? Above .7711 eases bear risks; through .7809 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7891.
For Today:
- We see a downside bias through .7215; break here aims for .7160 and then maybe key .7116.
- But above .7300 opens risk up for .7350, which we would look to cap.
