New York Forex Report: Oil price declined over the European morning today as a report from the American Petroleum Institute aid that US crude inventories had actually increased by 9.9 million barrels last week, far above the 3.6 million forecasted by analysts. Traders await confirmation later from US govt data at 1530 GMT. The US dollar remains strong so far today, despite weak manufacturing data yesterday, supported by sharp JPY weakness as equity markets continue to forge higher.
EUR/USD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish
Fundamental: A continuation highr in equities alongside a stronger US dollar keeps EUR under pressure as price continues to extend losses following poor February inflation data earlier this week.
Technical: While prior support at 1.0970 acts as intra day resistance bears target prior range support at 1.08. Only a close over 1.1080 eases immediate downside pressure
Interbank Flows: Bids 1.0850 stops below. Offers 1.0950 stops above.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines
GBP/USD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish
Fundamental: Despite further data weakness today with UK Construction PMI printing beneath expectations, GBP continues to recover supported by better risk-appetite.
Technical: While 1.4040/60 acts as resistance expect a continued grind lower for a test of the next major monthly downside objective at 1.37. Only a close over 1.4250 eases immediate downside pressure
Interbank Flows: Bids 1.3850 stops below. Offers 1.4040 stops above.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short
USD/JPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish
Fundamental: Improved risk-sentiment continues to weigh on the Japanese Yen, allowing room for further US dollar upside.
Technical: Friday’s close over 113.30 sets up the potential for a broader corrective phase against the daily double bottom pattern from last week. Bulls will be looking for 112.50 to continues to support expect a further leg of corrective gains, to retest the broken neckline support at 115/116. Failure at 112 open 11 again.
Interbank Flows: Bids 112 offers below. Offers 115 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral
EUR/JPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish
Fundamental: EUR/JPY continues to be driven higher by Japanese yen weakness as the traditional safe-haven currency sees diminished demand amidst better risk-appetite.
Technical: While 123 offers intraday support expect a continued grind higher to test offers at 125. A failure at 123 refocuses bearish sights on the psychological 120 en route to a weekly downside objective at 118/117, only a close over 125.10 eases bearish bias.
Interbank Flows: Bids 123 stops below. Offers 125 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral
AUD/USD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish
Fundamental: A sustained recovery in risk-appetite over early European traidng today continues to support the Australian dollar despite a stronger US dollar.
Technical: While .7120 supports intraday expect a test of range resistance at .7300. Only a failure at.7050 pivotal support threatens bullish bias
Interbank Flows: While .7120 supports intraday expect a test of range resistance at .7300. Only a failure at.7050 pivotal support threatens bullish bias
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long
USD/CAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish
Fundamental: USD/CAD rallied over early European trading today as Oil conceded recent gains on news of a beiiger-than-expected build in US crude Oil inventories. US Govt data at 1530GMT presents key event risk.
Technical: While USD/CAD trades sub 1.3510 downside pressure remains the driver with bears focusing on a AB=CD ultimate downside objective at 1.2966, the next interim support level to watch is is 1.3350.
Interbank Flows: While USDCAD trades sub 1.3510 downside pressure remains the driver with bears focusing on a AB=CD ultimate downside objective at 1.2966, the next interim support level to watch is is 1.3350.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short
