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Natural Gas: 3 Reasons It’s Time To Buy

ByTommy Humphreys
Published 02/20/2015, 03:53 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

While most market participants have been focused on crude oil, natural gas is poised for a powerful upside move over the coming weeks:

Natural Gas: Rounding Bottom

A fairly impressive rounding bottom pattern has formed during the last month in front month natural gas futures – a breakout above $3.00 would target a move up to the $3.20-$3.30 area. Moreover, there is a tantalizing gap still open up at $3.45.

Seasonality is also highly supportive of a long position in natural gas and could also help to explain some of today’s 4% rally:

Natural Gas Seasonality

Bullish seasonality for natural gas begins today and extends into mid-June.

CFTC Commitments of Traders data also supports a bullish view of natural gas with commercials at their largest net long position and speculators at their largest net short position since early 2011 (a 30%+ rally ensued over the next few months):

Natural Gas Speculation Patterns

Via Energy and Gold.com

Latest comments

Winter is as good as over. Then so to is demand.
If price hits the 3.25 to 3.30 range, could expect a retrace to the 2.80 to 2.85 range in early March to form right shoulder of an inverted h&s. This would project with a breakout to 4.00 by April/May. 60% probability with other outcome being range bound trade between 2.50 and 3.00 until WTI breaks above 55. Monday to Wednesday should set the tape for next three weeks - break to higher range or maintain current range.
If price hits the 3.25 to 3.30 range, could expect a retrace to the 2.80 to 2.85 range in early March to form right shoulder of an inverted h&s. This would project with a breakout to 4.00 by April/May. 60% probability with other outcome being range bound trade between 2.50 and 3.00 until WTI breaks above 55. Monday to Wednesday should set the tape for next three weeks - break to higher range or maintain current range.
if they say that it's time to buy nat. gas. for my experience you got to wait for another bottom to buy it. I believe that Nat Gas will hit 2.57 again before it make reversal. wait with you cash for 5 or 8 weeks. you will see the lower prices
a double bottom, sweet!
the guy gave the 1st chart is only 3 month timeframe. this is too short to explain long term movement. look one year or one and falf year chart, you will the real trend
I agree with everything this dude says about NG. I am long and I am orange...
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