Market Commentary
The EUR/USD slipped and hit a 1.1048 low on a USD double hitter Friday - firstly, better than expected US nonfarm payrolls data and secondly, the Greek Prime Minister claimed that they would not consider signing any bailout agreement or accept an agreement excluding debt restructuring. The Greek government decided to bundle together its four payments into one totaling 1.6 bln euros due on June 30 to the IMF, and so the saga continues.
GBP/USD fell sharply by more than one percent, and hit a 1.5188 low post stronger than expected US jobs data, bolstering the prospects of US rate hike by September this year. The British public’s expectations for inflation in the next 12 months ticked up in May, despite consumer prices receding recently. Governor Carney’s Mansion House speech will be closely eyed this week.
USD/JPY has traded steadily during Asian session, after the pair rallied to a 13-year high of 125.85 after the release of upbeat US nonfarm payroll. The president of the Government Pension Investment Fund said that it was not imminently hedging against currency moves, and they would steadily shift funds towards risky assets like domestic and foreign equities in order to meet new allocation targets
Technical Commentary
EUR/USD Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
While 1.11 contains downside reactions, expect retest of 1.1466 and 1.15 above, below 1.1050 on a closing basis, concerns near term bullish bias opening a retest of last weeks lows at 1.08
Daily Order Flow bearish ; OBV down, Linear Regression and Psychology bearish
Monitoring intraday price and Order Flow indicators on a test of 1.15 or 1.1050
GBP/USD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
While 1.5450 caps upside potential to test 1.5050 support before a more sustained corrective phase
Daily Order Flow bearish; OBV down , Linear Regression and Psychology bearish but stalling
Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators on a test of 1.5050 or 1.5450
USD/JPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish
While 124 supports expect retest of last weeks high en route to 128, bullish bias remains in play above 123.50
Daily Order Flow bullish ; OBV sideways, Linear Regression and Psychology rolling over to test midpoints from above
Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators on a test of 128 or 124.50
EUR/JPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish.
Profit takers emerge on primary test of the topside of the projected channel at 140/141, bullish bias remains in place above 137 to attempt retest of offers at 141 en route to 142
Daily Order Flow bullish; OBV down, Linear Regression and Psychology bearish
Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators on a retest of 140/141 or 136
