Market Commentary
Markets consumed by volatile action in Chinese stock markets; Greece takes a back seat, leaders posture ahead of yet another weekend summit; NYSE technical outage prevents trading on main exchange for most of day; NYSE outage sees flows into US treasuries and JPY in a flight-to safety bid; interbank reports suggest bulk of JPY spec shorts now trapped. USD down as Fed minutes read dovish; odds for one 2015 hike drop below 50% for first time.
EUR/USD grinded higher steadily towards 1.1100 level from 1.0972 low, as Greece showed positive attitude to follow its creditors on reforming its proposals.The ECB left the ELA cap unchanged as expected. Some large Greek banks may face possible closure that would follow any bailout of the country. ECB’s Liikanen said Greece had just one chance and the deadline expires on Sunday.
GBP/USD traded heavily and tumbled to 1.5328 low, despite better-than-expected Halifax House price, which came in 9.6% YoY against 8.3% expected. UK Chancellor George Osbome lowered the forecast of growth for 2015 to be 2.4 percent, down from a forecast of 2.5 percent made in March.
JPY advanced near its strongest level since May, owing to the slump in Japanese stock market amid a global wave of risk aversion. Japan current account surplus widened more than anticipated to ¥1,880.9 billion in May, compared to previous month’s surplus of ¥1,326.4 billion
Technical Commentary
EUR/USD Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
- Focus shifts to initial upside resistance at 1.1155, a break of this resistance opens a retest of key 1.1240/60 as we continue to oscillate in a contracting range trade with a bearish bias for now. Downside breach of 1.09 should warrant a quick test of 1.08 bids. Trading condition remain choppy and headline driven
- Daily Order Flow bullish; OBV up, Linear Regression and Psychology test midpoints from below
- Monitoring intraday price and Order Flow indicators on a test of 1.13 or 1.08
GBP/USD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
- Breaches primary trendline support at 1.5550, while this level now acts as intraday resistance, bears target a symmetry corrective target at 1.5285, below 1.5285 opens psychological 1.50 next.
- Daily Order Flow bearish; OBV down, Linear Regression and Psychology bearish
- Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators on a test of 1.5285 or 1.6010
USD/JPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish
- Test of key 120 area attracts buyers on first test, while this area supports expect retest of 122.50 from below above 123 targets 125 next. Failure at 120 opens 119
- Daily Order Flow bearish; OBV sideways, Linear Regression and Psychology bearish
- Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators on a test of 128 or 120
EUR/JPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
- Rejection at previous trendline support as resistance has price retesting 133/34 support in range trade, breach of 133 opens retest of 2015 lows, while above 138 opens 143
- Daily Order Flow bearish; OBV up, Linear Regression and Psychology bearish, but testing midpoints from below
- Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators at 138 and 133
