A push for a COVID-19 vaccine has been front-of-mind for several major drug companies for the last few months now, and it's approaching with a kind of breakneck speed. We've already seen several drug companies make advances on this front, and now, Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) is advancing just a little farther on its own pursuit of the same. However, it's not just the COVID-19 vaccine that should make you take notice of Moderna.
The Elephant in the Room
The good news for Moderna immediately is that the company has finished gathering the data from its first COVID-19 vaccine tests, and expects to bring out results from a study around said data later this month. With a 30,000 patient clinical trial—half of which got the vaccine while another half served as a control group with a saline placebo—it's likely to be a solid trial once all the data has been analyzed.
Once the analysis is complete, the company can consider next steps from there, including seeking approval from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for wider release.
A little pre-analysis from Dr. Anthony Fauci offered a hopeful note to Moderna's efforts. Since Moderna's vaccine is based around messenger RNA (mRNA), of a fashion similar to that used by Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), it's a safe bet that Moderna's vaccine trials will have similar results. That brings two vaccines into rapid production, and improves the chances that those who want it will be able to get it.
Naturally, Moderna and Pfizer aren't the only ones far down the line on this one; we've already seen AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) with candidates in late-stage operations, and likely to make their way to market fairly soon themselves. This is a case where the more really is the merrier, as the more alternatives there are in place, the more likely the vaccine is to spread as far and as wide as people may want.
More Than a COVID Vaccine
Moderna's recent gains haven't been limited to COVID-19, though; late in the day yesterday, word emerged that Moderna also offered encouraging results on a cancer vaccine. Also built around mRNA, the candidate known as mRNA-4157 delivered some impressive results when dealing with a kind of cancer known as “head and neck squamous cell carcinoma” or HNSCC. A combination of mRNA-4157 and Keytruda was said to reduce tumor sizes in five out of 10 patients, which may not sound particularly encouraging—a coin flip at best—but for those with HNSCC, it's good news.
It's especially good given that Keytruda by itself only shrank tumors for 16% of patients, and brought complete remission to 5%. Going from 16% to 50% with the addition of one new drug certainly will draw some attention. The news wasn't nearly so good for patients with advanced-stage colon cancer, though, as a test group of 17 found no shrinking in tumors at all with the combination drug.
Happy analysts, and a Lot to Like
Meanwhile, our latest research continues to suggest this company is a buy, as that's the consensus rating currently running through the analyst community. The analyst consensus is the same as it was a month ago, with one “sell”, two “hold” and 14 “buy” ratings. Given that the company's consensus price target has nearly doubled from six months ago—up from $48.17 to $88.47—it's clear there's a lot of life in this particular stock.
Sure, there are some concerns going into Moderna. The whole notion of using mRNA has a bit of controversy attached to it on general principles, considering some possible effects to DNA, but it does seem to be delivering some positive results. As for Moderna's COVID-19 entry, yes, it's going to have quite a few competitors. There was a lot of concurrent development going on here. But the upshot to that is that there's very little danger of any one firm using its first-mover advantage to corner the market. There will be such demand for a COVID-19 vaccine that brand names will mean little. If patients can't get a Pfizer vaccine, they will have little problem getting a Moderna vaccine instead, as long as it works.
A COVID-19 vaccine will certainly help Moderna going forward, and the cancer drugs it has won't hurt matters either. Having several products in its arsenal will help it draw potential revenue streams from several different points at once, meaning that any downturn in any one product will likely be ameliorated handily by the others. That improves Moderna's stability, and makes it a stock well worth adding to your portfolio.