MID-WEEK UPDATE 9/25/18
So far this week in the world of Forex, we have the GBP as the number one performer up just over ¾ of a percentage. The CHF followed by the NZD are the bottom performers so far this week, with AUD in close second followed by JPY and CAD. The EURO and USD remain relatively flat as we head into the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC Statement Wednesday, September 25th.
The USD remains under bearish pressure as we have been moving lower nicely- setting Lower Lows and Lower Highs. The psychological support level of 94.00 remains the next key level to break to the down-side, while 94.50 holds as the nearest resistance holding price from the up-side. The US just saw another 18-year-high in consumer confidence on September 25th, though this seemed to have little affect on the bearish pressure for the USD. All eyes will be on the Fed meeting on Wednesday, as there will likely be another rate hike, bringing us up to 2-2.25% Federal Funds Rate.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) also meets on Wednesday, though there isn’t likely to be any policy change out of them. The rhetoric out of the RBNZ and Adrian Orr is the most important thing to watch for, if they use any change in verbiage. The NZD has been in a strong downtrend for most of 2018, and has pulled back now to retest resistance at the strong psychological level of .6700. We will be watching to see if this resistance holds and the downtrend continues, or if we can break this and reverse the downtrend.
The EURO looks poised to move higher this week, as price has been basing for a fourth day in a row now. Price is trapped under strong resistance at 113.00 as we have set a new Higher High after breaking the downward trendline. We will be watching for a break of this range, between 113-112.50, to give us a clearer picture on the next move out of the EURO.
All-in-all we have a fundamentally loaded rest of the week to watch for- with two central bank meetings, GBP GDP, CAD GDP and several central bankers speaking. Make sure to be aware of all the medium to high news events going on and adjust your trades accordingly. Have a great rest of the trading week and catch some pips!