The financial markets are generally trading in tight range as traders await a number of events for the week. OPEC meeting will be a key to watch today. It's still highly uncertain whether a deal on production freeze/cut could be reached by the oil producing countries. WTI crude has been in a bumpy ride this week but is trending down from 48 to below 45 on conflicting comments of various officials. And it happens usually in an OPEC meeting, there would be comments before and during the formal meeting flying around and that would continue to drive volatility in oil prices. But president of the OPEC Conference, Mohammed bin Saleh al-Sada will hold a press conference to conclude the meeting in the end and that is the point where things really settle.
Dollar is also struggling in range too as markets await non-farm payroll later in the week. US will release ADP private employment today first which could shed some lights on how the labor markets performed in November. Fed governor Jerome Powell said that "incoming data show an economy that is growing at a healthy pace, with solid payroll job gains and inflation gradually moving up to 2 percent." And the case for rate hike has clearly strengthened. But as we mentioned before, a December hike is fully priced in already and markets are looking beyond that and are starting to bet on the chance of another hike by June. Economic data will be the key in driving the expectations and Dollar.
Markets are also cautiously waiting for the referendum in Italy this Sunday, on reforming the appointment and powers of the Parliament of Italy, as well as the partition of powers of State, Regions, and administrative entities. Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who proposed the referendum, declared that he would resign if the result comes with a "no". Polls suggest that the "No" camp is having a lead and a win for them would force out Renzi and create political uncertainties. It's reported that ECB stands ready to use the EUR 80b monthly bond purchase program to counter any spike in Italian yields after the referendum. The news drove down Italy 10 year yield mildly.
On the data front, Japan industrial production rose 0.1% mom in October. Australia building approvals dropped -12.6% mom in October. New Zealand NBNZ business confidence dropped to 20.5 in November. UK Gfk consumer confidence dropped to -8 in November. Eurozone will release CPI flash and German unemployment today. Swiss will release both UBS consumption indicator and KOF leading indicator. US will release AD employment, personal income and spending, Chicago PMI, pending sales and Fed's Beige Book. Canada will release GDP and IPPI.