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Markets Continue To Expect Easing From Global Central Banks

Published 07/31/2012, 06:39 AM
Updated 01/01/2017, 02:20 AM

Australia Building Approvals Better Than Expected In JuneEconomic Data

(AU) AUSTRALIA JUN BUILDING APPROVALS M/M: -2.5% V -15.0%E; Y/Y: +10.2% V -5.5%E

(TW) TAIWAN Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP Y/Y: -0.2% V +0.5%E (First contraction since Q3 of 2011)

(JP) JAPAN JUNE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.3% V 4.4%E (9-month low); JOB-TO-APPLICANT RATIO: 0.82 V 0.82E (highest since Sept 2008)

(NZ) NEW ZEALAND JUL NBNZ ACTIVITY OUTLOOK: 24.0 V 20.8 PRIOR; BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 15.1 V 12.6 PRIOR (first increase in 3 months)

(KR) SOUTH KOREA JUN CYCLICAL LEADING INDEX CHANGE M/M: 0.5% V -0.4% PRIOR

(JP) JAPAN JUL MARKIT/JMMA MANUFACTURING PMI: 47.9 V 49.9 PRIOR (15-month low)

(UK) UK JUL GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: -29 V -29E

(JP) JAPAN JUNE CONSTRUCTION ORDERS Y/Y: 4.6% V -0.9% PRIOR; HOUSING STARTS Y/Y: -0.2% V +9.4%E (first y/y decline in 5 months); ANNUALIZED HOUSING STARTS: 837K V 916KE

(KR) SOUTH KOREA JUN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -0.4% V 0.1%E (First decline in 3 months); Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.8%E

(NZ) NEW ZEALAND JUN MONEY SUPPLY M3 Y/Y: 5.7% V 6.3% PRIOR

(SG) SINGAPORE JUN MONEY SUPPLY M1 Y/Y: 6.6% V 7.4% PRIOR; M2 Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.7% PRIOR

(SG) SINGAPORE JUN BANK LOANS & ADVANCES Y/Y: 20.9% V 22.5% PRIOR; CREDIT CARD BILLINGS (S$): 3.18B V 3.25B PRIOR; CREDIT CARD BAD DEBTS: 18.0M V 16.4M PRIOR

(SG) SINGAPORE Q2 PRELIMINARY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 2.0% V 2.2%E

(AU) AUSTRALIA JUN PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT M/M: 0.3% V 0.4%E (5-month low); Y/Y: 4.4% V 4.4%E

(JP) JAPAN JUN LABOR CASH EARNINGS Y/Y: -0.6% V 0.0%E

(JP) JAPAN JUNE OVERALL HOUSEHOLD SPENDING Y/Y: 1.6% V 2.9%E (slowest increase in 5 months)

(JP) Japan Jun Loans & Discounts Corp m/m: +0.1% v -0.5% prior

Markets Snapshot (as of 04:30GMT)
Nikkei225 +0.6%

S&P/ASX +0.8%

Kospi +1.9%

Taiwan's Taiex +0.8%

Singapore Straits Times -0.3%

Shanghai Composite -0.1%

Hang Seng +0.9%

Sept S&P +0.2%

Spot gold +0.1% at $1,623/oz

Aug Crude oil unchanged at $89.75/brl

Overview/Top Headlines
Markets were mostly positive today as markets place their bets that the US and Europe will announce fresh stimulus measures in the near future. Markets also are interpreting recent announcements from China Premier Wen who said China will take strong measures to ease the downward pressure facing China's economy. Saying China will launch several large projects covering the railway, infrastructure, energy, telecom, finance, public health and education sectors. China Iron and Steel Association reports that industry wide profits fell nearly 96% y/y, but second half output could recover on favorably economic policy. Shanghai Composite was slightly weaker in the session, while the Hang Seng gained nearly 0.9%. China may also reinstate a 17% VAT on steel imports to protect the domestic market.

The ASX was up over 0.8% despite June housing starts falling 2.5% m/m, on a y/y basis 10.2% increase was much better than expected. AUD/USD remained stronger in the session, testing a high of $1.0538 and a low of $1.0489. Australia private sector credit was a bit slower in June when compared to May but up from the year ago period. Analysts in the country have started to notice a shift in Australia govt yields as the country benefits from safe haven flows. NZD followed the Aussie to $0.8115.

USD/JPY came off its ¥78.24 high after Japan Fin Min Azumi reiterated Japan will take decisive steps if needed on yen, moves are one sided and clearly do not reflect fundamentals. New comment to his statement was, Japan's view on yen's rise does have outside support including the IMF.

The Korean won, Singapore dollar, Taiwan dollar all made modest gains against the greenback, while the Philippine peso was slightly weaker. Brent crude contract was weaker by a quarter of a percent while crude was up slightly to $89.86. In Singapore the Straits Times Index was lower. In its annual report, the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) disclosed it reduced its exposure in developed markets, cut its holdings in equities and bonds, and started building up cash holdings for future opportunities.

Speakers/Geopolitical/In The Press
(CN) China Iron & Steel Association (CISA): H1 Steelmakers profit CNY2.39B, -95.8% y/y; Output could rebound due to beneficial economic policy

(CN) China may invest CNY1.0T into a subway system; Ministry of Railways to spend CNY470B on railroads and bridges this year

(AU) China Deputy ambassador to Australia Xue Bing: it is in Australia's interest to allow more investment from China into a wider range of economic sectors - AFR

(CN) According to Century 21 China Real Estate, residential land price YTD is down 30% y/y at avg CNY5.18K/sqm - Shanghai Daily

Equities
Huawei, 002502.CN: Exec: Targeting to ship 60M smartphones globally in 2012 - DigiTimes

2914.JP: Govt is still not sure when it will sell down its stake in Japan Tobacco - Nikkei

KoGas, 036460.KR: CEO: Will look for long term LNG purchases; mostly from North America

Tepco, 9501.JP: Receives ¥1.0T in public funds to use for nuclear compensation fund. now under govt control

TWE.AU: Incoming Chairman Payner: it is possible that we may source or grow grades within China in the future - SMH

IVA.AU: To cut exploration spending by 50% - Australian press

US Equities
HUM: Reports Q2 $2.34 (ex litigation expense) v $2.27e; R$9.70B v $9.85Be; -8.9% afterhours

STX: Reports Q4 $2.41 (adj) v $2.51e, R$4.48B v $4.60Be; increases quarterly dividend 28% to $0.32 from $0.25; -7.7% afterhours

HTZ: Reports Q2 $0.35 v $0.32e, R$2.26B v $2.22Be; +3.5% afterhours

HLF: Reports Q2 $1.10 v $0.96e, R$1.03B v $982Me; approves $1B buyback program (16% of market cap); +6.0% afterhours

Fixed Income/Commodities/Forex
JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥2.47T vs. ¥2.7T indicated in 0.1% 2-yr bonds, Avg Yield 0.096% v 0.100% prior; bid to cover: 11.84x v 8.22x prior (highest demand since June 2005)

(CN) PBoC to offer CNY8B in 3.35% 7-day reverse repos

JJG: ANZ: Wheat may fill the gap in the global feed system with corn concerns/prices continuing to increase

(AU) Newcastle Coal Prices +2.6% w/w (1st increase in 3 weeks)

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