Currencies
EUR/USD – dropped to the lowest level since December as the USD kept on strengthening, in spite of the weaker data out of the US. Today we have important inflation data out of both the Eurozone and the US.
USD/JPY – the weaker data out of the US combined with the resistance just below the 110 level were able to cause the pair to move down a bit. However, we are seeing this morning that this didn’t last long and we could see another attempt to reach the 110 level. There is enough important data out of the US today to push us above this if the data is strong.
GBP/USD – again the data out of the UK was not that good, even though the unemployment rate dropped. We dropped again but we are able to find some support in the 1.1238-1.124 range. Today we have again data out of the UK, and if the trend of this week continues, it is not expected to be good.
AUD/USD – has moved further down as the employment data was not that good overnight. Less people found work and the participation rate was a mere 64.4%, a 10 year low.
USD/MXN – yesterday I was wondering if we would find support on the Fibonacci level and if we look at the 1 hour chart we can see that this is indeed the case.
Indices
Dollar Index – moved up and is continuing, but so far we are unable break through the level which would bring us to the highest level in over 13 years. When that happens we could see some profit taking, although one could argue that this is exactly what is happening at these level, profit taking deluxe, as we don’t see a correction.
S&P 500 – we moved to test the 2167 this time from above as we remain trading in close proximity of this level.
Commodities
Gold – is clearly waiting for a clear direction as we continue to trade around the same levels. A break in the Dollar Index could give a new push to go test the 1200 level.
Oil – oil was moving up and down and is still trying to find a clear direction. We started seeing a move down right after the inventories (which once again showed a difference of over 2 million barrels between the API and EIA data) showed a larger build than expected. We saw production drop slightly. However, right about the same time, the Russian Energy Minister said that he expects a deal to be reached. However, there still exists a lot of skepticism in the market on the likelihood of a deal.