The more I see structures morph, together with the underlying daily structures, the more I think we’re going to see the market remain unsteady into September. I’ve been struggling with the relative movement in the Europeans, matching that with USD/JPY and even EUR/JPY – all of which are providing indications as to where they need to go but currently do not have the structures to do so directly. Well, that’s the way I see it as things stand now. This outlook needs to see some currencies remain in range and some make new highs/lows to comply with valid structures.
Yesterday’s losses in EUR/USD and therefore EUR/JPY were a bit of a blow, although even then I was puzzling over how USD/CHF and GBP/USD would slot in with EUR/USD. It does suggest that EUR/USD hasn’t yet completed its upward move – but with a vague downside limit. That USD/CHF only managed a 54-point range, holding within the recent range but in a position where a triangle should not develop. Therefore, it suggests a rather messy day again today, but should dip to a minor new corrective low within the current sideways move.
AUD/USD finally gave up sitting around and slipped off the comfort of the sofa to slip down to below the prior corrective low. While the Aussie is rather independent, it may be worthwhile keeping an eye on this because it may just provide a signal for EUR/USD…
EUR/JPY slipped lower and this implies an alternative – but still bullish outlook, I think. Meanwhile, USD/JPY hasn’t broken out of the past 5-days range. It has larger break levels, but there’s still plenty of cushion space either side of the current price to snuggle up and take a nap. So the approach should be neutral until one of these triggers is … err… triggered.
Quick trades only today…