Market Overview

On Sunday and Monday we heard about two new polls in the U.K. -- both showing the “leave” vote pulling ahead of the “stay” vote in the contest to determine whether Britain will...

With China still on holidays for the Dragon Boat Festival and Australian markets slowing down as they head into the Queen’s Birthday Long weekend, I’m expecting the week to just peter out...

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised the market after leaving the benchmark interest rate unchanged. A lot of market players expected the bank to follow the successive cutting of the official...

Recession Risk RisesIn last weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rising risk of recession as presented by JPMorgan's (NYSE:JPM) risk model: Following the release of the employment data, and...

US stocks finished near record highs on Wednesday led by rising oil. The dollar weakened to one month low as investors revised downward their expectations of a rate hike in June after the dovish...

Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early warnings for the past seven...

Forex News and EventsPotential reflection point in US labor The markets has been trading on the theory that weakness in labor report, specifically NFP, is an indication of a cyclical slowdown....

The deceleration of China's GDP growth rate has been seen both as a natural transition towards more sustainable growth rates and a sign that the Chinese model of growth is coming to an end. How does...

Chinese inflation data showed a further increase in producer prices in May (Chart 2). PPI increased 0.5% m/m in May, the third monthly increase, driving the annual rate up to -2.8% (consensus -3.2%...

US federal personal tax receipts receipts are falling fast. So is the Evercore ISI State Tax Survey.The last two times the survey plunged this much, the US was already in recession. Is it different...

CHF/JPY Today’s support: - 110.70(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 110.59, where correction also may be. Then follows 110.37. Break of the latter would result in 109.83. If...

Referendum Watch – 14 days to goThe polls open in a fortnight in the UK referendum and I don’t think I’m the first, nor will I be the last, to say that I wish we could get it all...

In the US today the weekly initial claims figures are due out, which is noteworthy as initial claims on average were 20,000 higher per week in May versus April.In the euro area, ECB president Draghi...

I am in Boston to attend the Fixed Income Leaders Summit and was invited to join Alix Steel, Joe Weisenthal, and Scarlet Fu on Bloomberg TV. We talked about the peripheral in Europe, especially...