Mapping the height of a natural gas tide is a difficult task for an analyst, but I find it a challenging and interesting one. A Tsunami Tide may be of an unknown height, which could hardly be experienced ever before; it all depends on the prevailing weather conditions at that time.
Natural Gas futures price is more or less impacted by same phenomenon, in relation to the weather conditions prevailing at a particular time of the season. Conditions might be averse due to El Niño effects on weather. One may experience delay or seasonal escalation in temperature every year. Movement of natural gas futures prices, therefore, seem to be derelict with its historical seasonal movement, depending upon its seasonal demand for natural gas.
On analysis of the movement of natural gas futures price in different time zones, I find that weekly and daily charts well define its long term picture more clearly. It is interesting to keep an eye on the speed and direction of the upper seasonal move at the beginning of 2017.
Height of the natural gas futures prices, possibly in the months of January and February 2017, will depend on the dates of their entry in breakout zone. Natural gas futures price may consolidate in the bullish zone before its entry into breakout zone to form new seasonal peaks. Though, every move depends on the prevailing weather conditions and the availability of natural gas, but this supply and demand factor is always left far away in the three-year price cycle of natural gas seasonal peaks.
Historically, if we look at the movement of natural gas before forming a seasonal peak in monthly chart, a cyclical pattern may be defined as forming new peaks after every two years. In other words, during every third year. For example, let's have a look at the natural gas futures price peaks, formed on January 1st, 2001, second peak of February 3rd, 2003, third peak of December 2005, fourth peak of June 2008, fifth, sixth and sixth small peaks of 2008, 2011 and 2014.
Now, it is the time to form a possible seasonal peak in 2017. Formation of continuation of outside bullish candles confirms the formation of a possible peak in coming months.
The height and the time of the possible peak of Natural Gas futures price during the year 2017 would depend upon the date of entry inside breakout zone. I have pointed out three entry points as follows:
1. Entry Point A - Possible Date : 26-12-2016 - Possible Height : $4.586
2. Entry Point B - Possible Date : 16-01-2017 - Possible Height : $4.992
3. Entry Point C - Possible Date : 20-02-2017 - Possible Height : $4.489
Disclaimer: This analysis is purely based on the technical observations. I do not have any position in natural gas. One can create position in natural gas at his/her own risk.