US markets today are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, but there’s no shortage of macro news in Europe to fill the gap. First up is the monthly report on unemployment in Germany, followed by money supply data for the Eurozone. We’ll also see new figures on consumer sentiment in Germany.
Germany: Unemployment (08:55 GMT) Europe’s main economy seems to have avoided a recession, or so this week’s update on third-quarter GDP suggests. Output advanced a sluggish 0.1% for the three months through September vs. the previous quarter, according to Tuesday’s release from Destatis. “The German economy turned out to be stable in a difficult global economic environment,” the Federal Statistical Office advised.
Maybe so, but the near-flat performance for the economy is a reminder that Germany remains vulnerable to stagnation or worse in the months ahead. But the political spin to put on a brave face on the numbers is in high gear. “We are not in a recession," insisted Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble this week. "We don't have quite such good economic growth as we did before but we are performing close to our economic capacity. We can't allow thoughtless chitchat about a 'crisis' to encourage one."
Focus will be on Germany's newly unemployed workers in today's update. Photo: Thinkstock
It’ll be interesting to see what today’s unemployment report inspires. The official 6.7% jobless rate isn’t likely to change much, but a more reliable measure of the trend lies elsewhere. The update on the number of newly unemployed workers deserves attention for assessing stagnation risk.
Recent figures show that Germany’s labour market is having a tougher time holding on to the existing workforce. The number of unemployed persons has increased in three of the four months, according to the Bundesbank. Today’s report for September is sure to be closely read for deciding if we’re about to hear more “thoughtless chitchat about a crisis” in the days ahead. 
Eurozone: Money Supply (09:00 GMT) Growth in the money supply for the nations that share the euro has been rising for the four months through September. The advance comes after an extended deceleration. It’s clear the European Central Bank is pumping liquidity into the Eurozone, and at the fastest rate in more than a year.
M3 (a broad measure of money supply) advanced 2.5% for the 12 months through September, well up from the recent low of just 0.8% in April. It’s taken too long for the ECB to change policy and nip the increasing risk of deflation in the bud. But better late than never … maybe.
In any case, it’s likely that today’s release for October will show that growth for the broad measure of money supply inched higher for the sixth straight month. ECB President Mario Draghi said as much last week, when he reiterated that the bank would “do what we must to raise inflation and inflation expectations as fast as possible.”
If today’s data tells us otherwise via a lesser pace of money supply growth, Draghi’s credibility will suffer while the threat of deflation will rise. Anything’s possible, but it’s hard to imagine that the ECB is willing to play with fire at this late date.
Keep in mind that Draghi’s scheduled to speak at 11:30 GMT, shortly after the release of today’s money supply figures. 
Germany: Gfk Consumer Climate (12:00 GMT) Business confidence perked up in Germany this month, snapping six straight monthly declines through October, the Ifo Institute advised on Monday. “Assessments of the current business situation are slightly more favourable than last month,” the group explained. “Expectations with regard to the months ahead are also brighter. The downturn in the German economy has ground to a halt for the moment at least.”
A reality check on Ifo’s relatively optimistic analysis for the business sector arrives in today’s forecast of the mood among consumers via Gfk’s estimate for December. In last month’s release, the research group reported that sentiment was on track for improvement in November after slumping in September and October.
“German consumers were evidently less affected by the continued problematic geopolitical situation and the resultant economic slowdown than they had been in the previous month,” Gfk noted late last month.
Germany’s stock market also seems to be anticipating a brighter outlook at the moment. The Dax Index closed yesterday (November 26) at the highest level since July, marking a dramatic 16% rally from the previous trough (October 15).
It’s still debatable if Germany’s macro outlook has changed for the better, but there’s a growing sense that the trend is stabilising. Today’s update from Gfk will provide fresh context for deciding if that's a reasonable viewpoint.
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