Large FX Speculators Raise USD Bullish Bets Last Week

US dollar net speculator positions advanced last week to +$34.70 billion

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators slightly increased their overall net bullish positions higher in the US dollar last week for a third straight week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $34.70 billion as of Tuesday June 9th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$0.55 billion from the $34.15 billion total long position that was registered on June 2nd, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

Last week’s data pushes the US dollar speculative level to a new highest level since April 28th when net positions stood at $34.75 billion.

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

Weekly changes for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets in favor of the euro and the Swiss franc while decreasing weekly bets for the British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

Notable Changes:

• The euro bets gained sharply by over +27,000 contracts last week to gain for the sixth out of the last seven weeks

• British pound sterling bets fell slightly last week for a 3rd week and remain bearish at just under -30,000 contracts

• Japanese yen bets dropped sharply for a third week and now net bearish bets are back over the -100,000 threshold

• Swiss franc bets gained last week (+1,770 contracts on the week) and maintain a bullish position of over +10,000 contracts

• Canadian dollar bets declined for a 2nd week last week by -12,720 contracts and CAD bets are in an overall bearish position for a 2nd week

• Australian dollar bets edged lower and fell for a third week and remain in a bearish overall position (-14,027 contracts)

• New Zealand dollar positions fell for a sixth week and NZD positions went further into bearish territory (-11,795 contracts)

• Mexican peso bets decreased for a 4th week last week. Bearish net positions fell further into bearish territory by over -50,000 contracts for the first time in six weeks

This latest COT data is through Tuesday June 9th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for euroFX futures

British pound sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for pound sterling futures

Japanese yen:

Last Six Weeks data for yen Futures

Swiss franc:

Last Six Weeks data for franc futures

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Australian dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

New Zealand dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Mexican peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican peso futures

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.