Key fundamental forex events for the week of March 28th through April 1st:
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of March 28th through April 1st, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Sunday, March 27th
2:00am CHF Daylight Saving Time Shift
2:00am EUR Daylight Saving Time Shift
2:00am GBP Daylight Saving Time Shift
All Day NZD Bank Holiday
All Day AUD Bank Holiday
Monday, March 28th
All Day CHF Bank Holiday
All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
All Day GBP Bank Holiday
1:30pm USD Core PCE Price Index 0.1% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Personal Spending 0.1% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales 3.5% versus 1.2% expected. The currency fell.
Tuesday, March 29th
12:30am JPY Household Spending 1.2% versus -1.8% expected. The currency rose.
12:50am JPY Retail Sales 0.5% versus 1.6% expected. The currency rose.
9:00am EUR M3 Money Supply 5.0% versus 5.0% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD RMPI -2.6% versus -0.8% expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 96.2 versus 93.9 expected. The currency fell.
4:30pm USD Federal Chairmen Yellen said that, “Implicitly, this expectation of fading headwinds and a rising neutral rate is a key reason for the FOMC's assessment that gradual increases in the federal funds rate over time will likely be appropriate. That said, this assessment is only a forecast. The future path of the federal funds rate is necessarily uncertain because economic activity and inflation will likely evolve in unexpected ways. For example, no one can be certain about the pace at which economic headwinds will fade. More generally, the economy will inevitably be buffeted by shocks that cannot be foreseen. What is certain, however, is that the Committee will respond to changes in the outlook as needed to achieve its dual mandate.” The currency fell.
Wednesday, March 30th
All Day EUR German Preliminary CPI 0.8% versus 0.6% expected. The currency rose.
8:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 102.5 versus 101.9 expected. The currency fell.
1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Payrolls 200K versus 195K expected. The currency fell.
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.3M versus 3.1M expected. The currency fell.
Thursday, March 31st
1:00am NZD ANZ Business Confidence 3.2 versus last 7.1. The currency fell.
7:00am EUR German Retail Sales -0.4% versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.
8:00am EUR Spanish Flash CPI -0.8% versus -0.6% expected. The currency rose.
8:00am GBP BOE Governor Carney, who is also the Chairman of the Financial Stability Board told a news conference at the FSB meeting in Tokyo regarding fintech that, “The important thing for us as members of the FSB is to be moving in parallel with these developments and not be stifling innovation, but being able to apply them in a way that improves the resilience of the system”. The currency fell.
8:55am EUR German Unemployment Change 0K versus -6K expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Current Account -32.7B versus -21.1B expected. The currency fell.
9:30am GBP Final GDP 0.6% versus 0.5% expected. The currency fell.
9:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals 4.9B versus 5.1B expected. The currency fell.
10:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate -0.1% versus -0.1% expected. The currency rose.
10:00am EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate 1.0% versus 0.9% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD GDP 0.6% versus 0.3% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 276K versus 266K expected. The currency fell.
2:45pm USD Chicago PMI 53.6 versus 50.5 expected. The currency fell.
5:30pm CHF Governor Board Member Maechler told financial professionals at a Zurich event concerning further SNB rate cuts that, “We’re always looking into other options, if needed -- we’re looking into all of them. We’re not excluding any of them, including a possible further reduction in the interest rate. We are aware and I think you are aware too that any further reduction in the interest rate would also cause undesirable side effects. Therefore it will be very important to compare these side effects to the benefits.” Maechler continued saying, “Despite a slight depreciation, the Swiss franc is still significantly overvalued and this is reflected in economic activity”. The currency fell.
10:00pm USD FOMC Member Dudley said that, “The Federal Reserve exists to serve Main Street, not Wall Street. The dual mandate objectives established by Congress—full employment and price stability—are clear on this point. There is no mention of Wall Street. At the same time, it is broadly recognized that without a well-functioning financial system it would be difficult, if not impossible, for the Federal Reserve to achieve those objectives. The Federal Reserve has evolved considerably since its inception in 1913. This evolution has been informed by lessons from past financial crises. The goal has been to make the Federal Reserve even more effective in carrying out its mission. This process of learning from experience is as critical for institutions as it as individuals.” The currency fell.
Friday, April 1st
12:50am JPY Tankan Manufacturing Index 6 versus 8 expected. The currency rose.
12:50am JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index 22 versus 24 expected. The currency rose.
1:52am CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.8 versus last 52.7.
2:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI 50.2 versus 49.3 expected.
2:45am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 49.7 versus 48.3 expected.
8:15am EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 53.4 versus 53.8 expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 51.0 versus 51.4 expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Average Hourly Earnings 0.2% versus last -0.1%. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change 206K versus last 242K. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate 4.9% versus last 4.9%. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 50.8 versus last 49.5. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 90.6 versus last 90.0. The currency rose.
6:00pm USD FOMC Member Mester has not yet spoken. The currency rose.
Saturday, April 2nd
3:00pm NZD Daylight Saving Time Shift
5:00pm AUD Daylight Saving Time Shift
Technical recap for the majors this week:
EUR/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.11595 open to a 1.13545 close.
USD/JPY:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Lower from a 113.141 open to 112.315 close.
GBP/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.41254 open to a 1.41798 close.
AUD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 0.75071 open to 0.76331 close.
USD/CAD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Lower from a 1.32711 open to a 1.30945 close.
NZD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 0.66728 open to a 0.68572 close.
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