The S&P 500 topped out one year ago, on May 20th, 2015 at 2134.72. One year has gone by and the SPX and has still not made a new high. It could be many years before we breach last year's high.
The SPX chart below indicates why it is not making any new highs and why a trend change is due any day, now.
From the lows of 2009, the SPX has risen in a parallel channel while never breaking/closing below it, with the exception of the beginning of this year at which time it broke down the channel and then closed below it. However, it has since recovered, as indicated in the chart below. Nevertheless, it is facing significant overhead resistance in the 2110 levels.
There is a lower high formation during all of the pullbacks, after the corrections, as can be seen in the chart below.
Whenever a long trending channel is broken, it weakens and the odds of a breakdown increase. The next move is the break of the channel which will change the uptrend into a downtrend.
Allow me to analyze what the targets of the long-term break of the uptrend are.
The pattern breakdown becomes confirmed below the 1810 levels. The break will form a pattern target of 1490 on the SPX. The targets usually overshoot in a bearish market, therefore,1490 is merely a ballpark figure that the markets can go much lower while falling.
Along with breakdown of the channel, the SPX is also making a long-term bearish rounding pattern, as indicated in the chart below:
The long-term chart patterns are negative, however, unless the shorter time-frame also becomes negative, and a buy or a sell signal is not triggered.
Let’s see what the short-term time frame chart patterns are suggesting. The short-term pattern shows a classic ‘textbook’ example of a bearish head and shoulder pattern as depicted in the next chart, below. The pattern will be confirmed when the SPX breaks and closes below the neckline at 2040.
Below the 2040 level, the next support level comes in at the psychological 2000 level. Most traders who have been buying the dips will buy close to this level, and I expect to see a bounce. The professional traders will use any bounce off these levels to short the market, to take advantage of its long awaited downtrend.
The bearish head and shoulder pattern target on the lower end, is located at the 1970 levels. However, these targets are only rough levels for reference. The markets can easily overshoot these levels.
On the shorter time frame, there are various levels which can offer support during the next major decline. As explained above, the 2000 level is a ‘psychological support area’ and 1970 is the pattern target. However, upon studying the charts, I can see that 1950 levels, which had earlier acted as a resistance, will now offer support.
If the markets break below the 1950 levels, then there is no support until it drops to the lows of 1810. Once the SPX breaks below the 1810 levels, it will enter into its’ multi-year bearish trend decline. The markets do not honor any support levels once they enter a confirmed bearish trend. Hence, although 1490 is the target, markets can go much lower as long as the bearish trend continues.
I have provided all of the important levels which you should watch out for. However, no pattern plays out exactly the way we expect it should. Therefore, it is important that you keep watching and be prepared to engage in this market, at the right time.