At first sight, the US economy seems to be far from a cyclical peak: the output gap has barely closed, housing investment is still recovering, wage and pricing pressures are mild, money market rates are negative in real terms and the yield curve is relatively steep.
- Seen from other angles, however, the US economy seems to be nearing a peak: corporate debt is at a record high, margins are levelling off, stock market valuations are high, and the automobile market and consumer credit are both booming.
- An odd mixture of hot and cold, the US economic situation is atypical and more fragile than it seems, notably faced with the risk of higher interest rates.
Given the growing importance of the shale oil and gas business, the economy has also become more sensitive to oil price fluctuations. - Looking to a horizon of 2018 or 2019, we cannot rule out the possibility of a hard landing.
Nine years after being slammed by one of the worst crises in its history, where is the US economy today? In some respects, it still has not recovered. Since 2008, the cumulative, lasting loss of activity is estimated at about six points of potential GDP1. The output gap, which has been negative for the past decade, is only just beginning to close.
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by Jean-Luc PROUTAT