The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, and AUD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: A fading correction? The minor upward correction has now more or less met its target (1.1095 – 1.1110) so the next step following the game plan should be to see returning sellers. A return below 1.1040 will be the first sign of returning weakness.
USD/JPY: Closed below key support. This time the break below 122.04 (Mar peak) was sustained and the pair closed well below it. The development points at more losses being in the pipeline so look for the current bounce to stall ahead of the former support as it now will be acting resistance. The return into the prior 118.33 – 122.04 range suggests that there’s a growing risk of visiting the lower end of the range. EUR/JPY - a break of 133.10 still the key downside trigger. AUD/JPY – posted a major break lower yesterday.
USD/CAD: Soon to take out 1.2835. Currently parked in what appears to be a contracting range, a bull triangle, we are looking for returning buyers ahead of 1.2675 (if breaking below an extended correction will unfold). A new attempt to stretch out for (and break) the 1.2835 key resistance should thereafter follow. Once the resistance has been cleared the pair should be aiming at our long term target range, 1.3066 – 1.3426.
AUD/USD: Minor bounce before breaking? The pair yesterday fell down to the 2001/2008 trend line and as expected bounced back. The upward reaction is probably just a minor bounce ahead of another attempt to break lower and given the recent slump in commodities (iron ore down 31% since its June peak) we see the upside very limited.
