The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, USD/CAD and AUD/NZD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Eyeing next the 1.1067 support. The decline continued on Friday (and the week ended with an equilibrium doji candle) adding more support to our bearish call. The next key reference point will be the prior wave 4 low at 1.1067 (followed by a weekly benchmark mid body point at 1.1034). The slow stochastic bear divergence was also confirmed by the Friday close.
EUR/GBP: Downside forces at play. With the market maintaining the move lower the weekly close came in below the 2010 trend line leaving us with a topside spike, a false break above the line. The behavior together with a likely completed three wave upside correction has further enhanced a bearish view.
USD/CAD: Double bottom soon confirmed. After a second weekly downside failure the probability for the double bottom to play out has increased significantly. A break above 1.2205, the confirmation point, is expected to take place early in the week and should trigger additional buying. Early birds buy a 1.2145 break and add on above 1.2205.
AUD/NZD: Pursuing key medium-term resistance. Another bullish looking weekly candle has been added ti the medium-term technical picture. In the dailies the move is challenging the high end of the 233-day exponentially weighted moving average band (at market) and in the weeklies the 55-week exponentially weighted moving average band (1.06151.0795) is under increasing pressure. The high end of this band also equals the yearly high and a reaction level on the way down from 1.13 to near parity, so this is the key ref to keep eyes on now.
